The results are in from yesterday's election: 365 seats to the Conservatives; 203 to Labour. The election maps are awash with dark blue, for it's the Conservative Party's largest majority since the 1979 when Thatcher won. Whether we think such a landslide is strikingly good or strikingly bad, we cannot deny that it is striking.
Brexit
Given Boris Johnson's continued mantra that he wants to "get Brexit done" - apparently the Conservative Party's top priority - then such a large majority might seem to suggest that the people of Britain* also want to get Brexit done. However, what seems to have escaped Johnson is that 52% of voters backed parties who want a second referendum (Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and SNP) while only 47% of voters supported Brexit-backing parties (Cons and DUP).
* I'll come back to the divisions of Scotland and Northern Ireland below.
Why has there been such a large Conservative majority? Brexit has obviously been a key issue in this election, but I suspect that people (not everyone, but enough to make a difference) haven't necessarily voted for who they think will give them the result they want, but rather, they have voted based upon who is most likely to bring about some closure (of any type - remaining, leaving, anything other than limbo). If I am right, it would not bean enormous surprise, given that the Brexit referendum was 3.5 years ago, and it's barely been out of the news since. People - and indeed the news media - have often said that they're sick of hearing about Brexit.
Could it really be that being bored of Brexit has been one of the major driving forces in the Conservative victory? In "getting Brexit done" Johnson has sought to assure voters that it'll all soon be over. And that, perhaps, is what people want most of all. Just like a friend who keeps talking about their turbulent relationship, even though there are always new tumultuous developments, arguments, arrests, and altercations, it can become tiresome to hear about it day after day. After a while you wish your friend would either commit to making the relationship work, or leave the relationship, but most of all that they'd just shut up about it. And this seems to be many people's attitude towards Brexit at the moment: they're bored of it. I suspect that a sizeable number of people voted Conservative yesterday because they saw the Tories as the party most likely to get it all over and done with. I can't think of any other times in history when voters vote because they're sick of hearing about something, but I suspect this may be the case with this election.
Here's a little quote from Leonardo Dicaprio's character in The Beach (2000) which seems reminiscent of such an attitude. (Whoever said a movie about backpacking in Thailand cannot give insights into a general election in the UK 19 years later?!)
Could it really be that being bored of Brexit has been one of the major driving forces in the Conservative victory? In "getting Brexit done" Johnson has sought to assure voters that it'll all soon be over. And that, perhaps, is what people want most of all. Just like a friend who keeps talking about their turbulent relationship, even though there are always new tumultuous developments, arguments, arrests, and altercations, it can become tiresome to hear about it day after day. After a while you wish your friend would either commit to making the relationship work, or leave the relationship, but most of all that they'd just shut up about it. And this seems to be many people's attitude towards Brexit at the moment: they're bored of it. I suspect that a sizeable number of people voted Conservative yesterday because they saw the Tories as the party most likely to get it all over and done with. I can't think of any other times in history when voters vote because they're sick of hearing about something, but I suspect this may be the case with this election.
Here's a little quote from Leonardo Dicaprio's character in The Beach (2000) which seems reminiscent of such an attitude. (Whoever said a movie about backpacking in Thailand cannot give insights into a general election in the UK 19 years later?!)
"In a shark attack, or any other major tragedy, I guess the important thing is to get eaten and die, in which case there's a funeral [...] or get better, in which case everyone can forget about it. Get better or die. It's the hanging around in between that really pisses people off."
Of course, if and when Britain does leave the EU, then that doesn't mean it'll suddenly be out of the news. I would think Brexit will still be newsworthy for a few years yet.
《--------------Votes ------------》
Constituency Grey Beige Cream
Const. 1 850 900 750
Const. 2 850 900 750
Const. 3 850 900 750
Const. 4 1300 0 1200
==================================
Total votes 3000 2700 3450
Seats won 1 3 0
The party with the most votes is the Cream party, with 3450 votes. The Beige party has the fewest votes. But in terms of constituencies won - which translates into seats in the House on Commons - the Beige party has 3 seats, the Grey party has 1, and the Cream party, which received the most votes, has no seats at all.
Democracy is valuable because it gives the people what they want (even if what they want is a silly choice), but a first-past-the-post system doesn't really give the people what they want. The people wanted the Cream party to have the most power, but in fact it has the least power. This seems very wrong.
Let's get back to reality. These results are for the whole of the UK:
Con Lab SNP LibD
% of vote won 44 32 4 12
% of seats won 56 31 7 2
No of seats won 365 203 48 11
If we compare the percentage of seats won to the percentage of votes won, we see that the Conservatives have benefited from the first-past-the-post system: they got less than half the votes, but over half the seats. The ones who've really lost out are the Liberal Democrats, getting 12% of the votes, but just 2% of the seats. This seems really unfair for those smaller parties who don't get their views heard.
The above table showed the statistics for the whole of the UK, but let's take a look at Scotland by itself:
Con Lab SNP LibD
% of vote won 25 19 45 10
% of seats won 10 2 81 7
No of seats won 6 1 48 4
The results here are even more remarkable: the SNP have benefited enormously from the first-past-the-post system. No wonder they are triumphant about the number of seats they've won: for 45% of the vote to translate into 81% of the seats is shocking. The Lib Dems have lost out a little, but both the Conservatives and Labour have lost out massively in Scotland because of the first-past-the-post system. As I said above, the Conservatives benefited from the system overall, but the fact that anyone is benefiting or losing out because of the first-past-the-post system is unfair. And it's almost always the smaller parties who lose out to the election winners.
If representative democracy is about the views of the people being fairly heard, then proportional representation is essential, or the views of the losing parties are not heard. For the next few years, views represented by Labour and the Lib Dems (as well as other smaller parties like the Greens) will be lost in the blue tidal wave across England, and the Yellow tsunami across Scotland. In the next election, as in previous elections, the winners and the losers may change, but the fact that the smaller parties lose out does not change. Whether the minority parties who fail to win seats have abhorrent views, or progressive views, whether they wish to legalise honour killings or to neutralise the UK's carbon footprint, if they are the views of a significant proportion of the UK people then they should be represented by in Parliament. But they're not. And that is the real tragedy of this election, and indeed every election in the UK.
Anyway...
Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales
Look at a map (rather than a bar chart) of how the UK has voted, and you'll see a marked divide along country lines.
• England is largely dark blue (Conservative);
• Wales is dark blue (Conservative) and green (Plaid Cymru);
• Northern Ireland is dark green (DUP) and burgundy (Sinn Fein);
• Scotland is almost all yellow (SNP)
Maps can be a little misleading though - for example, the green (Plaid Cymru) which appears to cover half of Wales does not represent half of Wales's population, but actually only a small share, because the area is sparsely populated. London and other major cities are also deceptive: they're small in area, but in terms of population size and number of constituencies, they're far larger. This means that the cartogram (see diagram below, or here for more info) looks rather different from the map. Labour has done well in urban areas, which are smaller on the map, making the larger rural areas in dark blue look more plentiful than they actually are.
As the cartogram shows, the Plaid Cymru seats are very few: Wales has largely voted Labour and Conservative.
But Scotland and Northern Ireland have definitely have not. The success of the SNP has (predictably) added fuel to the fire that is Nicola Sturgeon's burning desire (see what I did there?) for yet another Scottish independence referendum (indyref). Sturgeon is desperate to leave the UK - a position which seems a little inconsistent with her equally desperate desire to remain in the EU. Does she see value in breaking apart from a historic union of countries, or in staying together with old pals? Does she think Scotland needs to join forces with other countries to be stronger? Is she happy to have her power overshadowed by a larger superpower, from further afield? The answers vary depending on which union / power we are taking about: the UK or the EU.
What is interesting, however, is that despite the startling yellowness of Scotland on the map (and cartogram), Sturgeon's SNP only obtained 45% of the Scottish vote (see here) and so even if all the people who voted SNP are in favour of leaving the UK, this alone would not be enough to win a referendum for it to leave the UK. I expect that Sturgeon will call another indyref, and that Scotland will again choose to remain with the UK and thus out of the EU. But I could be wrong. We'll find out.
I imagine that if EU voters were now asked to decide whether Britain should remain in the EU, they'd vote us out! After all, it's hard to play nicely with someone who says they don't want to be in the gang any more. I wonder whether the people of England (and NI and Wales) would vote to push Scotland out of the UK if they were given the choice? They might. But I don't suppose Sturgeon will ask them.
So the UK may yet see more changes in its makeup. We need not see the dissolution of the UK/EU as a terrible thing though. I've written in a previous post how we need to take Brexit (and the potential loss of Scotland) with a pinch of salt: it;s not the end of the world, but just another page in history. In spite of their lack of support for our two main parties, Northern Ireland looks set to remain as part of the UK. But who knows whether post-Brexit border chaos will change things in Ireland.
Democracy and Proportional Representation
Elections and referendums don't always give us the results we want. I've been eligible to vote for two decades, and during that time, I've seen that sometimes the party I voted for did not win (either locally or nationally). When we lose an election - just as when we lose a board game, or lose our bet on a horse race - we can gracefully accept the result, or we can throw our teddies out of the pram. If we value democracy, then we should accept the result of it, even when we dislike it. Because democracy is more valuable than the rate of inflation, whether the Pound is up against the Dollar, and waiting times in GP surgeries. Freedom to vote means we have freedom to vote in bad leaders with stupid policies, and even if we do vote in bad leaders with stupid policies, then democracy is still worthwhile.
What doesn't seem great, however, is the way in which the number of representatives in the House of Commons is calculated. Here is how I think democracy should work: everyone gets a vote, and whoever gets the most votes is the winner. But our "first-past-the-post" system, doesn't support this, because it is possible for a party to have the most votes, but to still lose the election (massively). See below for how this can happen. Just imagine this happening on a larger scale (I've chosen some neutral colours to represent three main parties in a first past the post system):
《--------------Votes ------------》
Constituency Grey Beige Cream
Const. 1 850 900 750
Const. 2 850 900 750
Const. 3 850 900 750
Const. 4 1300 0 1200
==================================
Total votes 3000 2700 3450
Seats won 1 3 0
The party with the most votes is the Cream party, with 3450 votes. The Beige party has the fewest votes. But in terms of constituencies won - which translates into seats in the House on Commons - the Beige party has 3 seats, the Grey party has 1, and the Cream party, which received the most votes, has no seats at all.
Democracy is valuable because it gives the people what they want (even if what they want is a silly choice), but a first-past-the-post system doesn't really give the people what they want. The people wanted the Cream party to have the most power, but in fact it has the least power. This seems very wrong.
Let's get back to reality. These results are for the whole of the UK:
Con Lab SNP LibD
% of vote won 44 32 4 12
% of seats won 56 31 7 2
No of seats won 365 203 48 11
If we compare the percentage of seats won to the percentage of votes won, we see that the Conservatives have benefited from the first-past-the-post system: they got less than half the votes, but over half the seats. The ones who've really lost out are the Liberal Democrats, getting 12% of the votes, but just 2% of the seats. This seems really unfair for those smaller parties who don't get their views heard.
The above table showed the statistics for the whole of the UK, but let's take a look at Scotland by itself:
Con Lab SNP LibD
% of vote won 25 19 45 10
% of seats won 10 2 81 7
No of seats won 6 1 48 4
The results here are even more remarkable: the SNP have benefited enormously from the first-past-the-post system. No wonder they are triumphant about the number of seats they've won: for 45% of the vote to translate into 81% of the seats is shocking. The Lib Dems have lost out a little, but both the Conservatives and Labour have lost out massively in Scotland because of the first-past-the-post system. As I said above, the Conservatives benefited from the system overall, but the fact that anyone is benefiting or losing out because of the first-past-the-post system is unfair. And it's almost always the smaller parties who lose out to the election winners.
If representative democracy is about the views of the people being fairly heard, then proportional representation is essential, or the views of the losing parties are not heard. For the next few years, views represented by Labour and the Lib Dems (as well as other smaller parties like the Greens) will be lost in the blue tidal wave across England, and the Yellow tsunami across Scotland. In the next election, as in previous elections, the winners and the losers may change, but the fact that the smaller parties lose out does not change. Whether the minority parties who fail to win seats have abhorrent views, or progressive views, whether they wish to legalise honour killings or to neutralise the UK's carbon footprint, if they are the views of a significant proportion of the UK people then they should be represented by in Parliament. But they're not. And that is the real tragedy of this election, and indeed every election in the UK.
